安然渡过风暴|澳博官方网站app研究所-澳博官方网站app

Findings

Go to finding 1Total inflows were more than 20 percent, or roughly $400, 在登陆一周内低于基线. 流入休斯敦的资金迅速恢复，但迈阿密却没有.
Go to finding 2In aggregate, 在登陆当天，总流出量下降了65%以上，下降了30%以上, or roughly $500, in the week of landfall.
Go to finding 3Some spending categories (fuel, grocery, 为应对飓风，家庭开支也有所增加. 然而，在登陆的那一周，消费者削减了大多数类别的支出. 医疗保健支出下降了50%以上，12周后仍保持在较低水平.
Go to finding 4 在飓风来袭的那一周，债务支付下降了15%以上，在飓风“哈维”过后12周和飓风“厄玛”过后10周，债务支付累计仍低于基线水平.
Go to finding 5支票账户余额占10%, or roughly $670, 在飓风“哈维”过后12周高于基线水平，在飓风“厄玛”过后10周保持稳定.

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February 2018

2017年是美国灾害损失最大的一年, 总损失超过3000亿美元(NOAA), 2017). 灾害的发生率和造成的损失都在增加. 这些损失包括人身伤害等直接成本, loss of life, and damage to property; as well as indirect costs such as business interruption, lost wages, displaced residents, and lower tourism.

灾难如何影响家庭的财务状况? 澳博官方网站app研究所从100多万支票账户持有人中提取交易级数据，首次提供飓风哈维和厄玛对金融结果的影响. 我们发现支票账户流入量暂时下降了20%以上, or roughly $400, 飓风“哈维”和“厄玛”同时登陆，并在休斯顿迅速恢复, but not so in Miami. 支票账户流出减少了30%以上, or roughly $500, 在登陆的那一周，12周后几乎没有恢复. 支出的变化导致一些家庭的福利损失. 在所有支出类别中，医疗保健支出降幅最大. 因为流出比流入下降的程度更大，持续的时间也更长, 家庭的支票账户余额保持稳定或在短期内有所增长. 但这些健康的余额可能掩盖了延迟医疗和债务支付的事件, 以及修缮房屋和更换财产的预期费用. In this sense, in the face of a hurricane, families appeared financially resilient, 但在经济上可能没有弹性.

Navigate to finding index Navigate to finding 1 Navigate to finding 2 Navigate to finding 3 Navigate to finding 4 Navigate to finding 5

Finding One: Total inflows were more than 20 percent, or roughly $400, 在登陆一周内低于基线. 流入休斯敦的资金迅速恢复，但迈阿密却没有.

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支票帐户流入总额(7天滞后移动平均线)

在登陆的那一周，资金流入下降了20%以上(大约400美元)。.

支票帐户流入总额(7天滞后移动平均线)

Days since hurricane landfall	Houston	Miami
-21	41%	6%
-20	41%	22%
-19	41%	8%
-18	26%	6%
-17	8%	4%
-16	8%	5%
-15	7%	5%
-14	6%	4%
-13	6%	5%
-12	5%	3%
-11	-18%	-13%
-10	3%	-1%
-9	7%	5%
-8	5%	5%
-7	5%	6%
-6	5%	6%
-5	5%	8%
-4	31%	31%
-3	5%	24%
-2	2%	10%
-1	1%	6%
0	3%	3%
1	0%	-5%
2	-1%	-13%
3	-6%	-22%
4	-14%	-38%
5	-39%	-22%
6	-24%	-19%
7	-16%	-17%
8	-14%	-9%
9	-13%	-3%
10	-9%	5%
11	-1%	24%
12	34%	11%
13	25%	12%
14	16%	12%
15	16%	12%
16	15%	12%
17	17%	10%
18	16%	11%
19	16%	9%
20	-8%	8%
21	17%	8%

Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute

Finding Two: In aggregate, 在登陆当天，总流出量下降了65%以上，下降了30%以上, or roughly $500, in the week of landfall.

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TOTAL CHECKING ACCOUNT OUTFLOWS

在登陆的一周内，流出量下降了30%以上(大约500美元)。.

Total checking account outflows

Days since hurricane landfall	Houston	Miami
-21	5%	11%
-20	12%	2%
-19	6%	7%
-18	17%	14%
-17	20%	0%
-16	5%	7%
-15	7%	10%
-14	7%	1%
-13	-4%	3%
-12	-2%	8%
-11	-11%	-15%
-10	16%	-12%
-9	18%	18%
-8	17%	12%
-7	11%	14%
-6	10%	20%
-5	8%	28%
-4	8%	26%
-3	2%	11%
-2	7%	-14%
-1	10%	-64%
0	10%	-71%
1	-47%	-46%
2	-65%	-37%
3	-37%	-30%
4	-48%	-33%
5	-47%	6%
6	-37%	6%
7	1%	8%
8	1%	9%
9	18%	-5%
10	11%	24%
11	20%	30%
12	18%	13%
13	13%	13%
14	15%	13%
15	20%	12%
16	13%	21%
17	9%	11%
18	20%	6%
19	12%	7%
20	-11%	-2%
21	25%	32%

Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute

Finding Three: Some spending categories (fuel, grocery, 为应对飓风，家庭开支也有所增加. 然而，在登陆的那一周，消费者削减了大多数类别的支出. 医疗保健支出下降了50%以上，12周后仍保持在较低水平.

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飓风哈维对休斯顿支票账户资金流出的累积影响(与基线偏差百分比)

Weeks since hurricane landfall	Total outflows	Home expenses	Healthcare	Car expenses	Mortgages	Auto loans	Student loans
Baseline (week -7 to -3)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
-2	-2%	5%	-4%	7%	1%	-4%	3%
-1	-1%	10%	-4%	7%	1%	-4%	4%
0	-12%	-7%	-24%	-12%	-7%	-8%	-4%
1	-10%	2%	-20%	-6%	-8%	-9%	-4%
2	-8%	9%	-17%	1%	-9%	-10%	-6%
3	-6%	13%	-14%	6%	-10%	-11%	-7%
4	-4%	18%	-12%	10%	-9%	-11%	-8%
5	-3%	22%	-10%	12%	-11%	-11%	-8%
6	-2%	25%	-9%	13%	-11%	-11%	-8%
7	-1%	27%	-8%	14%	-12%	-11%	-9%
8	-1%	29%	-6%	14%	-12%	-10%	-8%
9	0%	30%	-6%	14%	-12%	-10%	-8%
10	0%	32%	-5%	14%	-12%	-9%	-8%
11	1%	33%	-4%	14%	-12%	-9%	-8%
12	1%	33%	-5%	13%	-12%	-9%	-9%

飓风“厄玛”对迈阿密支票账户资金流出的累积影响(与基线偏差百分比)

Weeks since hurricane landfall	Total outflows	Home expenses	Healthcare	Car expenses	Student loans	Mortgages	Auto loans
Baseline (week -7 to -3)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
-2	-5%	4%	-4%	1%	-13%	-29%	0%
-1	-2%	16%	-19%	-15%	-14%	-12%	-1%
0	-12%	6%	-31%	-21%	-22%	-20%	-7%
1	-9%	7%	-25%	-13%	-19%	-15%	-7%
2	-6%	8%	-17%	-9%	-18%	-15%	-6%
3	-4%	6%	-9%	-2%	-19%	-15%	-7%
4	-3%	6%	-8%	0%	-20%	-16%	-7%
5	-3%	6%	-7%	2%	-19%	-16%	-7%
6	-3%	7%	-5%	3%	-19%	-16%	-8%
7	-3%	8%	-5%	4%	-18%	-16%	-8%
8	-2%	8%	-4%	5%	-18%	-15%	-7%
9	-2%	8%	-4%	5%	-20%	-17%	-7%
10	-2%	9%	-4%	5%	-19%	-16%	-7%

Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute

Finding Four: 在飓风来袭的那一周，债务支付下降了15%以上，在飓风“哈维”过后12周和飓风“厄玛”过后10周，债务支付累计仍低于基线水平.

Finding Five: 支票账户余额占10%, or roughly $670, 在飓风“哈维”过后12周高于基线水平，在飓风“厄玛”过后10周保持稳定.

View Text Version

飓风对平均每日支票帐户余额的影响(美元与基线的偏差)

Weeks since hurricane landfall	Harvey	Irma
Baseline (week -7 to -3)	$0	$0
-2	$21	-$25
-1	$20	$4
0	-$45	$34
1	$247	$118
2	$205	$92
3	$395	$91
4	$458	$62
5	$481	$63
6	$499	$38
7	$499	$30
8	$578	$22
9	$558	$33
10	$635	$70
11	$586
12	$668

Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute

Conclusion

这些发现强调，飓风等灾害会扰乱资金流动和人们的财务习惯. 降幅最大的支出类别是医疗支出, 医疗支出放缓是由需求下降还是医疗供应中断造成的，这留下了一个悬而未决的关键问题. 而支票账户余额在短期内保持稳定或增长, 这些更健康的平衡可能掩盖了福利的损失, 例如延迟医疗和债务支付的事件, 以及修缮房屋和更换财产的预期费用. In this sense, 面对飓风，家庭似乎在财务上有弹性，但在经济上可能没有弹性. 地方官员可能要考虑加强努力，提高洪水易发地区医疗服务提供者的恢复能力. In addition, 特别是，生活在洪水易发地区的家庭可以采取重大行动，使自己在面对飓风时更具经济弹性, 建立流动性现金缓冲，以抵御金融波动和购买洪水保险. 本报告标志着在了解飓风对人们经济生活的影响以及为改进备灾和救灾工作提供信息方面向前迈出了关键一步.

Authors

Diana Farrell

Founding and Former President & CEO

Fiona Greig

Former Co-President

RESEARCH Weathering the Storm

Findings

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Finding One: Total inflows were more than 20 percent, or roughly $400, 在登陆一周内低于基线. 流入休斯敦的资金迅速恢复，但迈阿密却没有.

Finding Two: In aggregate, 在登陆当天，总流出量下降了65%以上，下降了30%以上, or roughly $500, in the week of landfall.

Finding Three: Some spending categories (fuel, grocery, 为应对飓风，家庭开支也有所增加. 然而，在登陆的那一周，消费者削减了大多数类别的支出. 医疗保健支出下降了50%以上，12周后仍保持在较低水平.

Finding Four: 在飓风来袭的那一周，债务支付下降了15%以上，在飓风“哈维”过后12周和飓风“厄玛”过后10周，债务支付累计仍低于基线水平.

Finding Five: 支票账户余额占10%, or roughly $670, 在飓风“哈维”过后12周高于基线水平，在飓风“厄玛”过后10周保持稳定.

Conclusion

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Authors

Diana Farrell

Fiona Greig

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