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研究 购物远近:数字时代的本地商业

来自全美40亿笔交易的洞察

In 2016 the metropolitan share of US Gross Domestic Product was nearly 90%. Given the large share of economic output from metropolitan areas it is critical for stakeholders, 研究人员, 政策制定者也要有颗粒, high-frequency economic measurement and analyses at the metropolitan level to complement existing local economic research.

在这份报告中, the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 expands the scope of our Local Commerce (LC) analyses through the introduction of our consumer view – namely, 居住在给定都市区内的消费者执行的事务. 这种观点补充了我们现有的商业观点 本地商业指数 which examines the transactions executed at merchants located within a given metro area. The consumer view enables exploration of the extent to which online commerce has affected growth, 谁推动了这种增长, 以及它对线下市场的影响.

地方商业的维度是什么?

The 澳博官方网站app 研究所 frames the Local Commerce lens along three dimensions:

  • 客户的住所,
  • 商户位置;及
  • 交易通道(线上/线下)

Customer and merchant locations allow us to understand the extent to which customers are shopping at local merchants versus merchants that are located in different metro areas. The transaction channel allows us to understand whether or not the purchase was a made at a distance.

找到一个: 2015年4月至2018年3月期间,lc -消费者指数平均为4 percent in year-over-year growth.

  • 2016年全年居民消费大幅增长. 截至2016年9月,平均增长率为2%.9%,而之后的平均增长率为5%.2%.
  • 2016年和2017年,增长水平保持在较高水平.
  • 美国政府捕捉到的支出增长.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey increases more gradually in comparison to the LC-Consumer Index.

发现二: Online spending has driven overall growth in the LC-Consumer Index, at times almost exclusively.

  • 相对较高的, sustained growth in resident spending has largely been driven by online commerce, 哪个贡献了每月平均4个.0和4.2016年和2017年分别增长了7个百分点.
  • The quarterly year-over-year growth of online spending in the LC-Consumer Index over the 2015 Q2 to 2018 2Q time period was 3.LC-C低1 pp (11.7%),而美国人口普查局的电子商务系列(14%).8%).

发现三: Non-local shares of LC-Consumer spending are increasing in every metro we track.

  • 旧金山的增幅最小,为0.4人,迈阿密最多,为2人.1 pp.
  • 2015年4月至2018年3月, the share of LC-Consumer spending that took place at non-local merchants increased from 45.5%到48%.9%.

发现四: Online commerce growth is driven by contributions from non-local merchants.

  • Overall spending growth is dominated by contributions from online spending at non-local merchants, 造成3.2和4.2016年和2017年分别为1pp. 这是和较小的1相比.5和1.1 pp contributions from online spending at local merchants in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
  • For offline transactions, spending at local merchants is the dominant driver of growth

发现五: Online spending growth is driven by high-income consumers between the ages of 35 and 54.

  • Consumers under 35 across all income brackets tend to contribute strongly to online growth, but high-income 35-54 year olds are the dominant contributors to growth in the online market. 这个小组贡献了3.2017年整体增长3%.
  • The growth contributions from high-income 35-54 year olds were 94 percent higher than the next closest group (low-income consumers under 35) in 2017.
  • This dominance by high-income 35-54 year olds is largely driven by the fact they hold the largest market share in online spending.

Data

执行我们对LC-Consumer视图的分析, we leveraged transaction-level data that is administratively collected by the bank during the course of normal operations. Each record carries attributes of the consumer, merchant, and the transaction itself.

The consumer view of Local Commerce provides a granular view of online spending and its implications for local economies that is difficult to capture via other data sources. Our initial analysis has revealed that the growth rate for online spending is highest for lower income customers under 35, but the largest contributions to growth come from the high-income 35-54 year olds. High and growing shares of LC-Consumer spending take place online and this is true across all metro areas we tracked. This growth in online spending has been accompanied by an increase in spending at merchants that are located outside the metro area of the consumer. 这些变化对当地经济的影响尚不清楚, but the LC-Consumer Index can provide unprecedented insight into an evolving commerce landscape.

作者

法雷尔

开国和前总统 & 首席执行官

林赛Relihan

澳博官方网站app研究所学术研究员

小马文·沃德.

本地商业研究主管